Polling at the Margins
This is our regular reminder that when you hear a political campaign breathlessly announce how well they are doing in a poll…put the brakes on any redecorating of a capitol hill office.
This is not to say the poll is not accurate…but dig past the headline.
This came to mind because of a Josh Turek campaign news release yesterday proclaiming his advantage over GOP competitor Ashley Hinson in the race for U.S. Senate.
First, the poll was released by GSG, Global Strategy Group, which describes itself online as “top Democratic pollsters” and saying “our work was pivotal in helping Democrats secure today’s majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate”. First, they might want to update their web site…last I knew, Republicans held the majority but you can excuse them for not noticing, since the GOP is hardly doing anything to let the world know they are there. Second, they are identifying themselves as working for Democrats, so you have to at least ask a few questions when their polling shows a Democrat in front.
The GSG poll, done for the Turek campaign, shows Turek leading Hinson by 2 points, 47-45 percent. As GSG points out, Republicans have a number of major advantages in Iowa—a 10 percentage point advantage in voter registration, a 9 point advantage on partisan self-identification, and Donald Trump carried the state two years ago by 9 points.
But there is a huge number of registered voters who are not affiliated with either party, which as we’ve discussed makes predicting election outcome impossible. That accounts for a lot of it, non-affiliated voters preferring a relative political outsider. And yes, for an incumbent member of Congress to be behind should be of concern to Republicans.
The main thing to note, beyond the headline, is that the polling is within the margin of error…Turek leads by 2 points, but the margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.1 percent. In short, it’s fair to say it’s a toss-up, and that alone is worth noting…and the Turek campaign’s news release simply says he’s ahead with some room to grow, which is more restrained than many campaigns would be in making such an announcement.
Republicans can accurately note that Turek just came through a strongly contested primary, so his name ID would be higher; but Hinson ran plenty of ads herself during the primary season. And most folks—including the non-partisans who will make the difference in November—don’t really pay attention until after the state fair, if not after Labor Day.
If anything, the poll should confirm what I think everyone has known for a long time—this will be a close race, right down to the wire.
