No Time for Incumbents
I often get asked what I think about this year’s general election. What I really think is that it’s a complete mess, with empty candidate promises and reasonable discussion about issues taking a back seat to snappy one-liners and character assassination. And that’s just from the campaigns…the interest groups supporting one candidate or another are far worse.
That being said, I think it will be a bad year to be an incumbent—whether Republican or Democrat. Polling data is suspect, but one consistent theme is first, that races are closer than usual—for state or federal offices, in large states and smaller states, where voters have traditionally cast blue or traditionally cast red ballots. It doesn’t matter what it is, it’s close.
Beyond that, if you have held public office, chances are voters are looking skeptically at you. Whether you are running for re-election, or election to another office, the power of incumbency is not what it used to be. And again, despite partisan analysts doing their best to say this favors their side and hurts the other side, the reality is that whether that incumbent is male or female, Democrat or Republican…the incumbent is in trouble.
Keep in mind we are more than six weeks away from election day, and plenty of time for whatever concerns we have about voting again for an incumbent to subside…but early voting begins in four states today, and an unsettled electorate that votes early may find things to be very different now as opposed to those of us who show up in person on election day.
Buckle up. This carnival ride is just getting started.
