Hard to Predict
Much attention has understandably been paid to the presidential race this year. That comes at the expense of down-ticket races, like for Congress.
It’s tempting to try to connect the popularity of the presidential candidate in a certain state with the fortunes of the congressional candidates. “Coattail” effect, we typically call it.
But a longtime friend who has been involved in Iowa politics for a half century has an interesting theory–that, in short, we can’t use the recent past as a guide in helping predict congressional outcomes in Iowa this year. I credit him with this, especially since he’s forgotten more about Iowa politics than I’ll ever know, but since I didn’t tell him in advance I was going to talk about this, I won’t identify him.
The last time there was a presidential election, 2020, our congressional districts were the same as they had been for about a decade. Then came post-census redistricting, effective with the 2022 election. That was a big election for Iowa Republicans, with statewide races and Sen. Charles Grassley on the ballot. So it’s hard to compare 2020 with 2022 because of the new districts and the influence of statewide races.
So too this year. Hard to compare 2022 with this year, because there are no statewide races. And it’s hard to compare 2020–the last presidential election–with this one because the districts are different.
Bottom line is that in addition to all the intervening circumstances dealing with policy causing variables in the equation…you don’t have a consistent foundation for analysis.
And that is all to say that in a close election–as is anticipated in both the first and third districts–no one truly knows, so working hard to turn out the vote will be even more necessary than in other cycles.
