First Forecast
We noted yesterday in this space that POLITICO released its first election forecast on Tuesday, analyzing each of the U.S. House and U.S. Senate races this November and looking into the crystal ball to see if a trend emerged.
They said that control of the U.S. House was “likely Republican” and the U.S. Senate was predicted to be “leans Republican”.
In Iowa, the U.S. Senate race was dubbed “solid Republican”. Incumbent Charles Grassley races a Republican primary fight, and thanks to the Iowa Supreme Court, there are three Democrats vying for that party’s nomination in the June 7 primary. Despite all that, POLITICO says this is a “solid Republican” seat. Republicans have identified swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire as a path to regaining the majority in the chamber.
As for the House, the only Democrat in Iowa’s congressional delegation has a tough fight. Iowa’s 3rd district was one of nine identified by POLITICO as a “race to watch”. They note that incumbent Cindy Axne survived in 2020, although by a smaller margin than when she first won in 2018, and despite the fact that Donald Trump carried the district…but that 2022 will be a “steeper climb” in their words. The race is deemed a toss-up, likely because three Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination and it’s too soon to make a comparison. It’s one of 24 toss-ups in the analysis.
Congressman Randy Feenstra’s 4th district was identified as “solid Republican”…with the other two seats both listed as “lean Republican”. That includes the northeast Iowa district, to be renumbered as the 2nd district. POLITICO’s Steve Shepard notes that the district got about a point better for the GOP thanks to redistricting, and says the overall environment also favors incumbent Ashley Hinson.
Sure, it’s still more than six months before the election…with Iowa’s primary some six weeks away. But in the world of politics, never too soon to start handicapping races.
