That Darn Generic Ballot Again
Yesterday, I downplayed this week’s Iowa Poll that surveyed voters in Iowa’s four congressional districts to determine if they preferred a Republican or a Democrat to represent them…I said it’s basically worthless because we have candidates by name that could be asked about, instead of a narrow R or D viewpoint.
Still somewhat worthless is the latest Monmouth College poll…but this was at least gauging a national trend. It shows that 50 percent of those surveyed would vote Republican, while only 44 say on a generic ballot they’d choose Democrat. So while the trend may be red, it’s still subject to real voters choosing between real candidates…nothing upon which to hang your hat.
Especially when you consider that while the trend favors the GOP…in terms of which party voters want to control Congress, just two months ago the Democrats held that advantage by more than Republicans do now.
In short…it’s close, it’s been close for some time, and it will be close on November 8. While it may turn out to be a wave…right now, the best interpretation is that there are ripples that will only grow into a wave with strong GOP turnout.
Trends that may be important regarding turnout and motivation for voting…Independents are breaking Republican by a tally of 52-40 percent…but the strong number for the GOP has to do with parents. Those who identify as parents break for Republicans by a 64 to 29 margin over Democrats…that’s a 35 point difference. Is that because of vax mandates and closed schools? How about gender affirmation and hiding things from parents? Who knows…but it’s enough to know that as a bloc, parents are quite motivated—and quite red as opposed to blue.
Again, no one can predict anything really. Which is why you need to act on your own with regard to a voting plan…because staying home in an election this pivotal and this important is really not a valid option.
