Red Splash
You hear lots of folks talking about a “red wave” this election…it may not be a “wave” here in Iowa, but it certainly looks like at least a splash.
That’s according to current data within The Cook Political Report. It was updated this past Wednesday morning, with no change in Iowa from the previous week…but that’s good news for the GOP here.
The fourth district has always been solidly red, for incumbent Randy Feenstra. The other three have been closer calls, but Cook now terms the Northeast Iowa seat, district 2 in the future, to be likely Republican, meaning incumbent Ashley Hinson would remain in Congress.
The other two districts…southeast Iowa’s first district, and central and southern Iowa’s third district, now lean Republican according to Cook. That would mean a win for incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the first; she, of course, won election two years ago by a scant six votes.
But it also means a pick up for the Republicans, with GOP nominee Zach Nunn unseating two-term Democrat incumbent Cindy Axne.
Overall, Cook shows 211 seats at least leaning Republican, and 193 at least leaning Democrat nationwide…with 31 rated as toss ups. With barely three weeks before the election…well, you can see there is a lot at state.
As for the U.S. Senate, Charles Grassley is listed as “solid” to retain his seat. Cook’s ratings are 10 days old with regard to the Senate.
Note that 21 seats currently held by Republicans are on this year’s ballot, while only 14 Democrat-held seats are up for grabs. That’s why the Senate has always been a tougher task for the GOP…they have a third again as many seats to try to hold onto than Democrats…and with a 50-50 breakdown now, the GOP has to hold on to everything before worrying about making in roads.
Of the 35 seats up for election, Cook says 19 of the 21 currently Republican seats at least lean Republican…while and 12 of the 14 currently Democrat seats at least lean Democrat. That means only four seats—2 currently held by Republicans, 2 currently held by Democrats—are up for grabs.
It won’t surprise you to know that those four are Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.
Anyone who tells you turnout is not the key factor on November 8 is either misinformed…or trying to lull you into complacency so you won’t vote. So let’s be clear…it really is “that” close, and turnout will be everything.
