By the Numbers
There’s very little polling being done in Iowa’s general election races…and you probably can dismiss what has been done as not being very reliable. But even the worst poll can help to determine trends.
So, then, information about an Emerson College poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday of last week…of 959 “very likely” voters in Iowa, with an appropriate margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points.
The numbers look very good for the top Republican incumbents in Iowa.
U.S. Sen. Charles Grassley holds a 49 to 38 percentage point lead over retired Adm. Michael Franken. That’s beyond the margin of error…and beyond the amount of undecideds that could break one way. Only 9 percent are undecided, and Grassley holds an 11 point lead. Hard to believe given all the ads and such, but 29 percent of those surveyed are unsure or have never heard of Franken. Pollsters note that Franken is dead even with Grassley with suburban and women voters, but Grassley holds a 33 point lead among rural voters; among men, he leads by 21 points.
Even more positive news for incumbent Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who outpaces Democrat challenger Deidre DeJear 53 to 36 percent. Again, 9 percent are undecided. Even though DeJear was a statewide candidate four years ago, a whopping 41 percent of those surveyed are unsure or have never heard of her.
Again, polls are polls…but the trending is interesting. Also interesting is how Iowans feel about issues…and the current president. I’ll have more on that tomorrow.
