Here’s Your Recession
Forget the numbers you hear about from the federal government. The country is too large to simply paint with a broad brush…it was true with COVID restrictions, it’s true when talking about the economy. Plus by the time the feds have the data ready to share…it’s out of date.
A better indicator would be a regional survey, such as the Rural Mainstreet Index facilitated by Creighton University economist Dr. Ernie Goss. And sorry to say…we’re hurting here in the heartland.
The index level fell for the fifth straight month, in data released yesterday…and is below growth neutral for the third straight month.
Dr. Goss says the survey of Iowa and nine other Midwest and Plains states shows supply chain disruptions from transportation bottlenecks and labor shortages continue to stifle growth in the region. And he says the results show that farmers and bankers are bracing for interest rates to continue climbing…along with the potential for falling farm commodity prices.
More inconvenient truth…52.2 percent of the bank CEOs surveyed say they expect spending and taxes related to the new Inflation Reduction Act to actually *increase* inflation and *add* to the federal deficit. Hardly a vote of confidence for the action signed into law earlier this week.
Another bad sign…farm equipment sales plummeted in the past month, after 23 months of steady growth.
And we haven’t even begun to talk about the impact of a drought on the situation.
If ever a group of people are resilient enough to overcome virtually anything, it’s our farm families and producers. But this is hardly the kind of news they—or any of us—need.
