Short Coattails
We talked at this time last Friday about the move by Tennessee Republicans to toss off the primary ballot there individuals who had recently moved to the state or a district, essentially just to run for Congress. The legislature even took the step of passing legislation that would take effect in the future to toughen up the residency requirements. One of those now off the ballot was even endorsed by President Trump.
A quote in an Associated Press story on the topic interested me because of its broader implications. State senator Frank Niceley is a Republican who was the chief proponent of the new law. He said, “I voted for Trump. I supported him. I’ll vote for Trump as long as he lives. But I don’t want him coming out here to tell me who to vote for.”
It brings up an important point about the so-called coattail effect in American politics…in short, there really isn’t one.
Think back to the Barack Obama presidency. He won in 2008, but his campaigning on behalf of Democrats in the 2010 midterms fell flat and the party lost majority of the body. When it was his turn to run again, in 2012, he won…but again, a failure in the 2014 midterms, and he famously failed when he tried mightily to pull Hillary Clinton across the finish line in 2016.
In short, Obama on the ballot worked to bring people along. Obama simply telling people who to vote for when he wasn’t on the ballot…not so much.
And that brings us to this year. Donald Trump had pretty good luck in the 2021 cycle with endorsements…but he’s making a lot more of them now obviously in 2022. How well will he fare? Again, folks have deep loyalty to Trump…but does that extend to the candidates he endorses? History would suggest it could be soft…and all that will tell the tale of the presidential race in 2024.
