Another Meaningless Poll
Well, perhaps not meaningless, but before I tell you about the new Emerson College national poll, I just want you to promise not to get too excited.
The poll was taken over a two-day period last week, right after election day…and it shows that generically, voters are more inclined to vote for a Republican for Congress next year than a Democrat.
When voters were asked if they would vote for the Democrat or Republican congressional candidate if the 2022 midterm election was held right now…49 percent said they would vote for the Republican, with only 42 percent voting for the Democrat, and 9 percent not sure.
I hate these generic polls…because while they do show that the Democrats are not fully in favor right now…the numbers always shift when you start attaching real live candidate names to a ballot, as opposed to unnamed Democrats or Republicans.
Still, it suggests that leading with party identification if you are a Democrat may not be a winning strategy right now. The party has working control of Congress…but the same poll shows that 62 percent say Congress is achieving less than usual, and that’s on the Democrats.
One analyst noted that if this is how it breaks next November, that 7 percentage point popular vote margin for Republicans would be greater than the 6.8 percent margin the GOP had in 2010, or the 5.7 percent margin from 2014…and each of those times, the GOP won historic majorities in the House. Could history repeat itself?
