It’s the Economy, Stupid
Back in March of 1991, President George H.W. Bush had approval ratings around 89 percent, and Democrats were finding it hard to find anyone to run against him in 1992. George McGovern was actively talked about, 20 years after he was the party’s nominee, because if the Dems were going to lose, they might as well lose with someone who could espouse the party principles–and was used to losing at that level. No sense wasting a candidate with a future.
But as 1991 moved along, folks were having a harder time making ends meet, and more Democrats jumped in…including a then-little known Arkansas governor, Bill Clinton. He won his party’s nomination, and hammered home domestic issues. Advisor James Carville famously wrote, “it’s the economy, stupid” on a white board in the campaign headquarters, reminding staff that they needed to be laser-focused on that message in order to win. They were, and they did.
So here we are, 35 years later, and then as now, kitchen table issues win the day. Notice I didn’t say “affordability”–which was the term high-priced consultants wanted candidates to use. That was too much “insider speak” and besides…we all knew about higher gas prices, higher grocery prices due to that, and so on.
It wasn’t so much affordability as we weren’t doing well on a day-to-day basis. When that’s the case, you figure it’s time to try something different.
That was the case in 1976, 50 years ago. The Ford Administration tried “Whip Inflation Now” complete with wearing red buttons with white printing that said WIN. They did not whip inflation, and they did not win against Jimmy Carter. Voters figured things were bad, they had to try something else…only to find it was worse under Carter.
So now voters have said it’s time to try something else. Will this be worse, as was the case 50 years ago?
