Registration Numbers at the Home Stretch
Given the saturation nature of political coverage and advertising these days, it’s sort of quaint to say that Labor Day yesterday marked the start of the general election campaign season; after all, it used to. And I dare say for many folks—especially political independents—this is the time they still start paying attention (provided they haven’t already been turned off by the summertime political ads).
On the first of each month, the Iowa Secretary of State as commissioner of elections publishes a report on voter registration totals…and once again, my but it’s an interesting set of data.
In both of eastern Iowa’s congressional districts, independent or no party voters far outpace Republicans, with Democrats a poor third in number.
In northeast Iowa’s second district, there are 190,000 no party voters registered, compared with 182,000 Republicans and only 160,000 Democrats. Meanwhile, in southeast Iowa’s first district, there are 198,000 no party voters registered, compared with 185,000 Republicans and only 170,000 Democrats.
Obviously, a no party registrant may have leanings one way or another…but the bottom line is clear, that those independents and their turnout will decide the races in those districts. Small wonder, then, that the campaign ads for the candidates don’t tell you if the candidate is a Democrat or a Republican…because they’re chasing voters in the middle.
Republicans actually have the voter registration edge in south central Iowa’s third district, including Des Moines. There are 187,000 Republicans, compared with 178,000 no party voters and 176,000 Democrats. That’s about as evenly split as you can get.
Far different story in western Iowa’s fourth district, where Republicans have a massive advantage—236,000 Republicans, compared with 163,000 no party voters and only 113,000 Democrats.
Takeaways are clear…Democrats trail in partisan declaration by registered voters in each of Iowa’s four congressional districts. Remember, these are drawn based solely on population, with no consideration given to party affiliation. Given the divisive nature of our political discourse these days, it will be interesting to see how conciliatory or “open to work with the other side” these candidates will be, as we enter the homestretch toward November 3, just eight weeks from today. After all, that’s where the voters are.
