Losing Their Advantage
Typically, voters say they trust Republicans on the whole when it comes to national defense and the economy…and trust Democrats on social issues such as the environment and health care. That’s why the state of the economy is always important, because it tends to favor one party over the other.
But 2026 is a unique cycle in a number of ways. And a new poll proves the point once again.
For the first time in nearly a decade, Americans are picking Democrats over Republicans as better stewards of the economy; that’s according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted over the past week of more than 4,500 voters, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus two percentage points.
The poll showed that 37 percent of registered voters said the Democrat Party has a better approach to the U.S. economy, compared with 36 percent who picked the Republican Party. That’s statistically a dead heat, but the point is that the GOP used to hold a nice advantage; but no more. Another 27 percent said they were not sure which party would be better for the economy, or that a different party would do a better job.
Reuters/Ipsos notes that Republicans held the advantage on the economy through most of Trump 1, through all of the Biden term, and to this point in Trump 2.
As for the generic ballot question, 42 percent said they would vote for a Democrat in the congressional elections this fall, with 37 percent selecting a Republican. Again, those numbers change whenever a real person’s name is attached, but it gives a sense of voter mood…as does this: Independents in the poll picked generic Democrats over Republicans by a whopping 12 percentage points. Given the large number of Independents out there…that’s huge. And given that there are only about three dozen House seats and only about eight Senate seats that are truly competitive…every voter matters.
