Registration Numbers
On the first of each month, the Iowa Secretary of State releases data on voter registration in the state. We often share the data with you here to see if trends are developing. The new data suggests something at first glance…but potentially something quite different upon further review.
Republicans outnumber Democrats in each of Iowa’s four congressional districts…and by a wide margin in each.
In Southeast Iowa’s first district, the GOP has 20,000 more registered voters than Democrats. In Northeast Iowa’s second district, the GOP advantage is nearly 25,000. In Central and South Central Iowa’s third district, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 17,000. And the ruby red fourth district in Western Iowa shows a whopping 113,000 vote advantage…the GOP actually leads by more than a 2 to 1 margin.
So that’s at first glance…Republicans way out in front of Democrats where voter registration is concerned.
But let’s look a little deeper. There are far more non-partisan, or independent, registered voters in both of the Eastern Iowa congressional districts than either Republicans or Democrats…20,000 more independents than Republicans in the first district, 15,000 more in the second district.
In the third district, the GOP still leads, but by fewer than 100 voters. Republicans still outdistance independents in the fourth district.
What difference does this make? Those who do not declare a party preference are by definition not loyal to either major party—meaning their vote could go either way in a given election. And that’s an awful lot of swing voters.
It’s still quite an uphill climb for Democrats, to be solidly in third place in each district, behind independents and Republicans. But that many “undeclared” voters become a prime target for messaging since you don’t have to convince them to flip from red to blue…just slide in progression from purple to blue.
And as always, the party still has to put a decent candidate on the ballot. Surprisingly, in some pretty big races, the choices appear to be thin.
