Global forecast: beef production to fall further in 2025

Beef production in major exporting and consuming regions is projected to decline in 2025, with global output likely to remain under pressure heading into 2026, analysts at Rabobank reported this week. The report indicates the largest volume reductions are expected in the United States, which has faced shrinking herds and lower slaughter rates. That trend helps explain why other producers — particularly Australia — are expanding feedlot capacity to capitalize on weakened U.S. output. At the same time, production in several other major beef-producing countries — including New Zealand — is forecast to drop the most in percentage terms, driven by tighter margins, disease pressures and shifting global demand. Globally, exports of beef and beef products are expected to grow only modestly, as shrinking supplies and rising input costs limit expansion potential, the Rabobank analysis found. This downtrend could have ripple effects on beef prices worldwide — potentially boosting retail costs in importing countries and reshaping consumer supply chains just as demand recovers after pandemic-era disruptions.