I Have No Idea
That’s my answer to a lot of questions this days, tied to current events…from the pandemic to the economy, from civil unrest to next week’s election…I have no idea.
And I’m not alone. Frankly, even those who get paid to analyze and comment on such things, on radio and TV and in print, don’t know what’s to become of us. Some are honest enough to say it; the others are in the tank for one party or the other, so it’s hard to separate wishful thinking from fact-based analysis.
But that’s part of the problem…the facts are pretty hard to come by. Say what you want about the accuracy of polling, but most I have seen say the presidential race is so close in most states that it’s within the margin of error…meaning too close to call. Literally, I can make you a case for Donald Trump winning in an electoral college blow out, surpassing his numbers of four years ago…but I can also make you a case for Trump going the way of McGovern or Mondale, with Joe Biden steamrolling his way to victory. And, of course, every scenario in between.
If you have come here looking for comfort…as in, your preferred candidate is going to prevail…I’m afraid I can’t give it to you. I first started covering presidential politics in Iowa as a teenager 40 years ago, seeing Bob Dole up close at the Tama Livestock Auction sale barn, and John Connolly–the $10 million per delegate man–in the middle of the night at the old King Tower Cafe on Highway 30. All I know is that it was a lot harder to develop pictures then, using a dark room and all…and that campaigning is far different now.
Oh, I’m older, too…not necessarily wiser in most respects, but perhaps wise enough to know that I won’t be surprised at the outcome of the presidential race, whenever we do know that outcome. And wise enough to not even try to make a prediction. Right now, it feels like Trump has momentum…but 70 million people have already voted, many before that momentum cranked up.
So the one thing I’m certain about…I have no idea…and none of the rest do either.
