No Bounce
Typically, a presidential candidate gets a bounce in the polls when announcing a vice presidential running mate. That did not happen for Joe Biden this year, perhaps because the choice was somewhat predictable and had been accidentally reported by Politico a week early. Perhaps also because he pledged to put a woman on the ticket, so there was no surprise that could have helped him in a poll.
Typically, a presidential candidate gets a bounce in the polls in the days following the convention. That did not happen for Joe Biden this year, perhaps because the convention was not a normal one and viewership was down significantly.
But even worse for the challenger, his lead in certain key states is actually slipping.
Real Clear Politics averages of polls in three states crucial to the Trump win in 2020 still show Biden in front, but not by as much as Hillary Clinton was ahead at the same time four years ago…and she went on to lose each of those states.
In Pennsylvania, Clinton was up by 9.2 percent, but Biden is only ahead by 5.7 percent.
In Michigan, Hillary’s lead was 9.0, Joe’s is only 6.7.
And in Wisconsin, Clinton led Trump by 11.5 percent, but Biden’s advantage is only 6.5.
Sure, Biden leads nationally, but as we all know, that’s not how we elect presidents. It’s state by state, and those three that were red four years ago have to be of concern to the Democrats, since they have focused so heavily on them to avoid a repeat this time around.
