The Path to 270
Election Day is just one day away. Hopefully—for the sake of everyone’s sanity—we’ll know that night who the next president will be.
The magic number, of course, is 270—the number of votes needed to clinch victory in the Electoral College. Each state gets an electoral vote equal to the number of U.S. senators they have—2 each—plus the number of U.S. Representatives they have, based on percentage of the country’s population. The District of Columbia also gets 3 electoral votes, giving us a pool of 538.
In 2020, Joe Biden was credited with 306 electoral votes, while Donald Trump earned 232. Because of population changes tied to the 2020 census, if the Democrats and Republicans simply won the same states they each won in 2020 this year, Trump would actually have 3 more votes due to states he won picking up more population and therefore electoral votes.
That would have made the 2020 race 303 to 235…meaning Trump would need to flip enough states to earn 35 electoral votes and get to 270. This, of course, presumes Kamala Harris does not flip any red states blue this time out.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin…that alone is 44 electoral votes and puts him over the top, presuming no other states flip. That’s the industrial “blue wall” folks talk about. Of that trio, Trump winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is most likely…but that’s only 29, he needs 6 more. Georgia certainly gives him some comfort, with its 16 electoral votes. Nevada only has 6 votes, like Iowa, but a Pennsylvania-Wisconsin-Nevada trifecta with no other changes would do it…Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, could replace Nevada in that scenario.
The important thing to remember is that our Constitution keeps score by the Electoral College and not the popular vote. That’s a system that has worked for nearly 250 years and should remain in place. But if you’re wondering why so much attention is being paid on those few states…it’s only math.
