Don’t Believe Any Poll
I could just stop there…don’t believe any poll…but you probably wonder why.
First, national polls suggesting who is ahead in the popular vote are worthless because we don’t have a national election for president…we have individual state and territory elections that feed the electoral college. And as we know, the winner of the national popular vote may not be the one who wins the electoral college vote—the one that actually puts someone into the White House.
Beyond that, until you hear who was sampled (such as likely voters or just registered voters), how many were sampled, and what questions were asked…you can’t really evaluate whether the poll was valid. Questions that are designed to lead to a certain outcome, asking people who don’t actually vote—those all inject flaws into the system.
All that being said, the RFK Jr. Super Pac proudly sent a news release out yesterday declaring that Kennedy could beat Trump and be the first independent elected president since George Washington—all based on polling data. They even paid for billboards in major cities like Washington, D.C. and New York City with the note that “Only Kennedy Can Beat Trump.”
American Values 2024 notes that a recent poll conducted by Zogby Strategies indicated that Trump would beat Harris 51% to 49%; however, in a head-to-head matchup between Trump and RFK Jr., RFK Jr. would win by 14 points–57% to 43%.
Presuming the polling is accurate, that’s a bold statement. It also does not take into account the electoral college. But as Democrats have buyer’s remorse over throwing Biden overboard and anointing Harris as the party’s nominee, there’s nothing like Kennedy reminding delegates that it’s actually an open convention, that he wanted to run as a Democrat but was blocked, and if electability is why Biden was tossed, he does better than Harris.
But as I said…don’t believe any poll. Although anything that throws a monkey wrench into the Democrat power brokers plans to alter the process is fun to watch.
