Tracking fertilizer costs since the beginning of the conflict in Iran

Fertilizer prices have climbed sharply following the outbreak of conflict involving Iran, raising concerns about higher production costs for U.S. farmers in the years ahead. Analysts say nitrogen fertilizers have seen the largest increases due to disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global fertilizer supplies. According to recent University of Illinois production cost data, anhydrous ammonia prices jumped from an average of $828 per ton before the conflict to $1,123 per ton by mid-April. Prices for 28 percent nitrogen solution also surged by 25 percent during the same period. Experts say many farmers may avoid the worst impacts in 2026 because inputs were purchased earlier, but the financial strain could intensify in 2027 as higher-priced fertilizer moves through the market. Phosphate and potash prices have remained relatively stable so far, though continued supply disruptions could eventually push those costs higher as well, adding further uncertainty for crop producers already facing tight margins.