Are You Better Off Now?
Ronald Reagan speechwriter Ken Khachigian came up with the line in the 1980 presidential campaign…simply ask Americans if they are better off now than they were four years ago. The answer was that they were not, and Reagan sent incumbent Jimmy Carter back to Georgia.
Strategist James Carville utilized the same concept internally in 1992, telling colleagues who were struggling to stay on message that, “it’s the economy, stupid”…and that’s how Bill Clinton sent incumbent George H. W. Bush—who had just led a successful Gulf War effort—back to Texas.
2026 is not a presidential election year, of course…but the fortune of the party in power lies in how voters feel about pocketbook issues come November.
The price of a gallon of gas, for example, is way down from a year ago…that’s good for consumers, and therefore for Republicans. Will enough Americans see meaningful changes this year from the reconciliation bill passed last summer—lower withholding taxes, no tax on tips, etc.—that they notice and therefore connect the good times to the people in the majority?
Polls at this point are mixed; just as many Americans say they are worse off financially right now, as say they are better off. Still too soon for much of the legislation passed in 2025 to have an impact, and still way too far off from an election in November. But more than likely, the only measure to watch in polishing your crystal ball about this year’s election is how folks feel on pocketbook issues.
And to take that to a local level, Iowa legislators would be wise to figure out the property tax solution early on…because not only is that the top issue on the minds of voters, but it’s a confusing issue–so there will need to be time for the actual outcome to be explained to voters, who may not see an actual benefit until after the election, given when taxes are due; that could have been avoided had they fixed the system last year, but they didn’t and here we are.
You can study issues and candidates all you want, and you should; but realistically, in the end, how much jingle we have in our pockets may be the deciding factor. Again, that’s not new…but bears repeating.
