Standing In The Way
There are two things standing in the way of Donald Trump successfully enacting his agenda, the so-called MAGA Mandate…number one, Democrats…and number two, Republicans. We’ll talk about the latter today, and the former tomorrow.
By all rights, the GOP should be primed to move forward swiftly on a host of issues by holding the White House and majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate. But we thought the same thing in 2017, eight years ago, and it was Senate Republicans then who got in the way of a more aggressive agenda put forward by the House, leading to Democrats retaking the House in the midterm election.
The problem with the Senate is that, even though ultimately the GOP will hold a 53-47 majority plus the tie breaking vote of the vice president, there are a lot of folks in the Senate who wish MAGA had never been resurrected by Trump–recall the original use of “Make America Great Again” came during the 1980 Reagan campaign. These are either so-called moderate Republicans, or those who don’t like Trump personally, or those who resist outsiders interfering with their cushy, long-held tenure in the chamber. Mitch McConnell, for example, will have more freedom as a member and committee chair than as the caucus leader, and that could be a thorn in Trump’s side given their past public squabbles.
The real problem, one that could play out before the end of this week, is in the House. Republicans can only afford to lose the vote of one member and still have a majority to get things done. If Democrats vote as a bloc, and the GOP loses two House members to defection on any given issue–then the issue is dead. And the first item of business in a new Congress is electing a Speaker of the House…and we all know how poorly that went two years ago.
Mike Johnson may not be the right choice for Speaker…but unless or until the caucus comes up with a better choice, one that can get every single Republican to vote to approve, there’s no point in tossing him aside simply because no other business will get done. The House could spend its first two weeks actually passing legislation to get to the new President’s desk early in his term…or it could spend that time with in-fighting over who should hold the gavel. Which do you think the American people would prefer?
The continuing resolution Johnson proposed, 1,500 pages of pork, was a travesty. But the public rose up against it, and it quickly went away. The best way to ring in the new year is for Johnson and Trump to meet and be on the same page, with the future President publicly endorsing him. That could avoid a problem Friday when the new House shows up for work. The second best way is for Trump to publicly write Johnson off and name his preferred successor. At least that would keep the momentum going.
Note these are GOP unforced errors that could derail Trump 2.0…and that’s just in the next week. We’ll talk about Democrat hurdles to overcome tomorrow.
