Senatorial Privilege
When Donald Trump first became president in 2017, both chambers of Congress had Republican majorities. At first glance, it would seem tailor-made for moving an agenda forward.
But longtime Washington politicos, particularly in the Senate, had their own ideas of what should be moved forward and dismissed Trump as the outsider who needed to learn the ropes. That’s why hundreds of bills passed the GOP-led House, but yet stalled at the door of the Senate. I recall then-Speaker Paul Ryan on the campaign trail in Iowa before the 2018 midterms, bemoaning the lack of progress by the Senate and asking voters not to blame his members. Of course, voters saw Republicans in full control and failing to get anything done, and the House flipped to Democrat hands.
Fast forward to today, where when Donald Trump takes the oath a second time, both chambers of Congress will again have Republican majorities. I suggested a few weeks ago that things might be different this time…but I’m beginning to believe Trump 2.0 will look like Trump 1.0 when it comes to help from the Republican majority in the Senate.
Yes, Republicans will have a 53-47 working majority. That means they can lose three of their own on any measure and the bill will still pass with a tie-breaking vote of then-Vice President J.D. Vance. But there are enough Republican senators who are–to put it mildly–not Trump fans to torpedo legislation. And given how slim the GOP majority will be in the House, that will be even more crushing to his agenda.
I’m not referring to any specific issue just yet, and I do believe in the Senate’s “advise and consent” role in approving Cabinet members. But this bears watching, especially in the wake of reports that outgoing caucus leader Mitch McConnell–certainly no Trump fan–will assume chairmanship or key roles on committees again, and be free from having to take a more moderated public stand as is the case when serving as minority or majority leader. Lots of those in the Senate owe him for helping them get elected, and action on some of the Cabinet nominees now and other legislation later may depend on how much debt they feel they have to repay the outgoing leader.
Again, I may be sounding an alarm unnecessarily…but watch Senate Republicans. Once again, they may be the biggest hurdle to a Trump agenda making it into law.
