Close Now, Not Later
Two of Iowa’s four members of the U.S. House of Representatives faced primary election challengers this cycle. Both won, but it was closer than some would have thought. But that doesn’t mean anything in November.
In Southeast Iowa’s first district, Congresswoman Marianette Miller-Meeks defeated David Pautsch 56 to 44 percent. Meanwhile, in Western Iowa’s fourth district, Congressman Randy Feenstra defeated Kevin Virgil 60 to 40 percent.
A win’s a win, and I say there’s always a solid quarter to third of the electorate that would vote against an incumbent in a primary just to send a message. The message sent in each of those races was louder, in both cases tied to not being conservative enough, especially on spending issues.
Democrats crowed in news releases and said the vote showed tremendous dissatisfaction with the incumbents that would lead them, Democrats, to victory in November.
That’s nonsense, of course. Tomorrow on “Iowa Almanac” I’ll remind you of this in detail, but for today’s purposes, recall that 30 years ago, a long-time incumbent governor, Terry Branstad, only won renomination against Congressman Fred Grandy by a tally of 52 to 48 percent…but had a bigger margin of victory, 57 to 42 percent, over Democrat Bonnie Campbell in the fall.
In other words, the primary is a family feud…and if you think those voters who went with the unknown outsider because the incumbent wasn’t conservative enough are now going to flip and vote for an obviously more liberal Democrat…well, that defies logic and common sense. And even if the “send a message voter” is inclined to sit out in November, they know how important it will be to enhance a GOP majority in the House to give their choice for President a stronger hand; they are far more likely to hold their noses and vote for the Republican in the House race than anything else.
Those incumbents would be wise to acknowledge the election and seek to shore up that support over the next couple of months before the real fight begins, leading to a vote in November.
