The Second Spot
One of the big parlor games this spring has been to guess who Donald Trump will pick as his running mate.
I had it narrowed down to South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. The stories about Gov. Noem and treatment of animals would seem to take her out of the running; I’m just not sure how you recover from that, particularly among the audiences from which Trump needs more support in order to win in November.
Scott has a great life story, good ideas about the economy, experience in both the U.S. House and Senate, and is a person of color—again, all things that might appeal to groups the GOP needs.
In the past, one of the considerations for a vice-presidential choice is if they can deliver electoral votes, particularly from their home state. South Dakota only has 3 electoral votes and is solidly in the GOP camp regardless. South Carolina has 9 electoral votes, but again, is pretty solidly red. Conventional wisdom would suggest picking someone from a toss-up state with more electoral votes, like the 17 from Ohio, or 19 from Pennsylvania.
But I don’t think the electoral college map is at play here that closely. It’s more of how can that vice-presidential choice help across the board to win states, not just the one where they live. That’s where the politics of characteristics of birth come into play; they shouldn’t but they do.
All that being said, especially in a presidential rematch, the vice-presidential choices are not a big factor. Yes, Biden’s frailty makes it more than possible that Harris would become president in a second term, and that’s a proposition worth considering. But while the campaign signs may have a two-person ticket listed, voters are far more likely to only see the top name when making their choice.
