Numbers Flip
The nearly clean sweep by Republicans in the 2022 midterm was explained in part by the GOP upping its voter registration totals, exceeding Democrat numbers in each congressional district. A month ago, we noted for you that there had been a shift back to Democrat majorities in three of the four…and wondered if the first-in-the-nation presidential precinct caucuses would have an impact on that.
The answer is in, and the answer is yes.
There are about 4,000 more registered voters in Iowa now than before the caucuses. Western Iowa’s fourth district was and remains solidly Republican. The GOP picked up more than 3,000 new registered voters, while the Democrat number dropped by about a thousand. There are 50,000 more “no party” voters in that district than Democrats.
Two of the remaining three districts flipped from blue.
In Northeast Iowa’s 2nd district, Republicans gained 3,500 registered voters, while the number of registered Democrats dropped by 1,500. The GOP now holds registration advantage of 3,300 over Democrats in the 2nd district…but the number of “no party” voters is more than 25,000 more than either of the two parties. In essence, then…it’s more purple than red.
In Southeast Iowa’s 1st district, the GOP picked up 4,000 registered voters, while the Democrat number dropped by 1,500. However, Democrats still lead Republicans in registered voters there, 179,716 to 179,298…a 418 vote advantage. But there again, “no party” out paces either party by 25,000 voters…so pretty purple.
Finally, in the 3rd district, including Des Moines and south-central Iowa, a flip from blue to red. The GOP picked up more than 5,000 registered voters, while Democrats lost nearly 2,000. But that district is quite evenly split…with roughly equal numbers of declared Republican, Democrat, and “no party” registered voters. The GOP majority over Democrats is around 2,000.
That’s a far more optimistic picture for Republicans than a month ago…but with the eastern half of the state colored purple instead of either red or blue, good luck predicting what voters will do in November.
