Caucus Context
We’re only 20 days away from the Iowa Republican first-in-the-nation presidential precinct caucuses. Current polling shows former President Donald Trump topping 50 percent in many polls of likely caucus goers. That’s obviously a majority—all the others combined don’t reach his level of support.
And if he were to reach that 50 percent mark, it would be a record…and by a long ways.
If we look at all the contested caucuses, which date back to 1976, in only two cases did the winner top 40 percent, but less 50 percent.
1976 saw two candidates, and not surprisingly, both were above 40 percent therefore. Gerald Ford bested Ronald Reagan 45 to 43 percent. The only other time a candidate in a contested caucus topped 40 percent was in the year 2000, when George W. Bush scored 41 percent support.
Winning totals in all other contests are, relatively speaking, quite low. For example, George H.W. Bush won in 1980 with 32 percent. Bob Dole won in 1988 with 37 percent, and Dole again won in 1996, but with only 26 percent.
Mike Huckabee won the 2008 caucus with 34 percent. Four years later, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney tied at 25 percent, with Santorum being declared the winner. The last time there was a contested caucus, eight years ago, Ted Cruz topped Donald Trump by scoring 28 percent of the vote. Trump that year got 24 percent…and for more context, he’s now polling at more than double that.
Ultimately, Trump may have to settle for less than 50 percent. Given his current polling, some may say that’s a sign of weakness, to “only” get 40 or 45 percent. But history shows even that is a rare accomplishment in a contested Iowa Caucus.
