Popularity Contest
As we get closer to Iowa’s presidential precinct caucuses, you’re going to hear a lot of claims…many of which won’t make sense when put next to other claims. They’ll be so different, you figure they can’t both be true…and that’s often the case.
But one of these has to do with the popularity—or lack of popularity—of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who has publicly endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the presidential race. Those who backDeSantis believe her popularity with Iowa voters will translate to increased support for DeSantis, while others claim it won’t help because she is the most unpopular governor in the country. How can both those things be accurate?
Let’s start with popularity. Reynolds won re-election 13 months ago by nearly 20 percentage points…garnering 58 percent of the general election vote as opposed to her Democrat challenger only pulling down 39.5 percent. So she’s now been elected governor twice, with a large win barely a year ago. Certainly that shows popularity.
But she is also the most unpopular governor in the country, if a poll released last month by Morning Consult is to be believed. While 49 percent of Iowans surveyed say they approve of the job she did in office, 47 percent disapproved. No other governor had that high a “disapproval” level…yet even with that, more folks approved than disapproved. How? Because only 4 percent of Iowans surveyed had no opinion about her job in office. When that small a number has no opinion, then naturally the numbers of those who either approve or disapprove will be high…so while she has one of the highest approval ratings in the country, she also has the highest disapproval rating. For example, the governor of Oregon has 15 percent of voters in the state with no opinion…so naturally, the number approving and disapproving will both be lower.
It reminds me of when the legendary sportscaster Howard Cosell was the star of Monday Night Football broadcasts in the 1970s…polls would show him to be both the most loved, and most hated, sportscaster in America…because regardless of how you felt, you had an opinion. So, it seems, with Gov. Reynolds.
Presidential endorsements aside, there is a point in the poll that warrants further conversation tomorrow.
