It’s All Timing
We’re barely six weeks away from the first-in-the-nation Iowa presidential precinct caucuses, and as always, timing is everything.
Those who peaked at the time of the old August Iowa Straw Poll often weren’t even in the race by the caucuses early the next year. And how we view candidates depends on what’s going on in the world.
For example, remember 2008. Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucuses, and Joe Biden dropped out after receiving only 0.9 percent of the delegates that night. Obama went on to win the nomination. But as he was looking for a running mate, there was trouble in the nation of Turkey, which helped expose Obama’s lack of credentials in foreign affairs—certainly as compared with the GOP nominee, John McCain.
So in an effort to bolster the credentials of the ticket overall, Joe Biden suddenly became the vice presidential choice despite his utter lack of electoral success to that point in national races…because Biden supposedly had international relations credentials due to his long tenure in the U.S. Senate.
It wasn’t long before the Obama team apparently wanted a “do over” on that one, but the Democrats won the election and the White House, so the issue went away.
Look at the state of the Republican presidential race today. Some of these trends were developing before Hamas terrorists struck Israel, but in the time since, Vivek Ramaswamy’s outsider status is not as popular…while Nikki Haley’s time as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations has elevated her status in polls and the also-important funding column…winning endorsement from the Koch brothers just yesterday.
By all rights, the attack on Israel should have helped Ron DeSantis, given his action as Florida’s governor to send planes there to retrieve citizens of his state from Israel, his experience in the military, and his experience in Congress. But as has been the case so far since the beginning of his campaign, DeSantis peaked early and has been on a decline ever since.
Chances are the Middle East situation will still be a major issue by the time of the January 15 caucuses. But what if that issue cools and something else bubbles to the surface? So many Iowans are still shopping…which is why Iowa is such a great place for the process to start, because we dig deep into the process…so while turnout will be the ultimate key to success, close behind will be what’s going on in the world at the time, and which candidate seems best able to respond to that moment.
Of course, that may not be of value at the time of the general election or beyond…but again, timing is everything.
