No Bounce
The question I’ve been asked a lot in the past couple of weeks, both by people in Iowa and nationally, is what impact the endorsement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds will have on the race. I suggested at the time there would be very little impact, other than perhaps to stop him from sliding in Iowa.
Now a new Iowa State University poll, called the Iowa State Poll, has data. The poll showed that 70 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers approve of the job Reynolds herself is doing, but 63 percent said her endorsement made no difference in deciding who to support in the January 15 caucus. In fact, nearly a quarter—22 percent—said the Reynolds endorsement made them less likely to support DeSantis.
ISU political science professor Dave Peterson organized the poll of more than 1,000 registered voters in Iowa. The survey was conducted between November 10th and 15th. This is the third in a series of five monthly polls, and it’s noteworthy that despite candidates dropping out, endorsements coming in, etc., the basic order of candidates remained the same.
The poll shows Donald Trump at 54 percent of likely caucus-goers…a slight drop, but within the margin of error. DeSantis comes in second in this poll, at 18 percent…with Nikki Haley at 12 percent. No one else is in double figures.
Yesterday, we talked about a poll released last week of more than 800 likely Republican primary and caucus voters conducted by Cygnal on behalf of the Republican Main Street Partnership. The biggest disparity in that poll, which focused a lot on issues, has to do with presidential preference. Donald Trump snares 60 percent of respondent support. In second is Ron DeSantis with only 9 percent, and Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy each at 8 percent. By the way, in that poll, all the candidates were viewed positively by voters…except Chris Christie, who is at -24 in the “net favorable” category.
That mirrors results from the Iowa State Poll, which showed that nearly a third of respondents would not want Christie to be the nominee…by far the largest negative response given.
Still plenty of time before January 15, 2024…but quite a pattern has been developing, and is now beginning to crystalize.
