Crystal Ball
Over the weekend, a Newsmax reporter I’m acquainted with reached out to ask, “What do you think? Will DeSantis pull it out?”
I told him the same thing I’ve told you all in the past…but it’s been a while, so here goes.
It’s not a secret that while remaining publicly neutral, it appears Gov. Reynolds is pro-DeSantis. At her personal fundraiser this past weekend, her guest was Riley Gaines, the female swimmer protesting males being allowed to call themselves females and competing in sports. Ms. Gaines is a publicly-declared DeSantis supporter.
And at least two of our four members of Congress have staff members who either left to join a DeSantis-related entity, or are moonlighting for one.
Obviously, those are potential behind-the-scenes strings being pulled. I suggested that the Governor will only make a public endorsement if it seems the race tightens to where that might make the difference.
In addition, at various party events, I’ve overhead a lot of party pros and party regulars—the ones who attend those high-dollar functions—say they are tired of everything surrounding Trump. They love the policies, but are weary of what comes with them.
And, I noted that the evangelical leadership of Iowa is very much pro-DeSantis…much in the same way they were pro-Ted Cruz and denied Trump the caucus win in 2016.
However, the people are pro-Trump. The trick is how many of those will show up at a public caucus; it’s one thing to cast a private vote, or show up at a rally…but these are relatively new voters, not all Republicans, and not used to going to the caucus in the same way organized evangelicals or party regulars are.
If the Trump ground team in Iowa, which has been pretty woeful so far, can get folks to show up…he wins handily. If not…and the folks used to getting their way show up…there’s a slight chance for an upset, but that’s the only way.
If forced to place a range of numbers, I say it’s Trump at 45 percent, DeSantis at 25, Haley at 15, Ramaswamy at 10, and the rest of the field that’s left combined at 5 percent.
Lots of time, though, before January 15—some three months, in fact. But from my seat…that’s how I see it today.
