The One Percenters
We are about six months away from Iowa’s first-in-the-nation presidential precinct caucuses, and a field of more than a dozen candidates is elbowing each other for your attention on the Republican side.
The threshold for making it on the debate stage next month is one percent in three valid polls…plus fundraising minimums. You might say those “one percenters” have no shot, and we should just pay attention to those with a chance of winning.
The folks at Fox Business reminded their audience yesterday of how things looked at this point the last time Republicans did not have an incumbent running for president…it was in the summer of 2015, about six months before the 2016 nominating process.
A national Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush out in front with 22 percent. He was followed by former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 17, with Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio rounding out the top three, at 14 percent.
Among those “one percenters” far back in the pack, coming in at 13th place, was a political newcomer who had name ID but no experience in elective office: businessman Donald J. Trump.
We all know what happened by the time of the Iowa Caucus…Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz won, with Trump in second…good enough to leverage himself into the nomination and the presidency.
Obviously, the situation today is different…Trump as a former president is in the race and at this point holds a dominating lead.
But some of those with one percent a short time ago are making a move into the top tier. And as we know, early front runners tend to fade in Iowa, and those with one percent six months out can win the party’s nomination.
So again, if you’re wondering…that’s why we bring you conversations with everyone who is running. Because we know the ultimate outcome is far from certain.
