Survey Says
The Republican National Committee has a set of minimum requirements that presidential candidates must meet in order to be on stage for the first sanctioned debate of the season in August.
Among those is standing in polls…that could be a problem for a field of more than a dozen…but not for the reasons you might think.
The rule is that a candidate must earn 1 percent in three polls to participate in next month’s debate. But not just any poll will do; in order to count, the polls must survey at least 800 likely primary voters or caucus goers. Sounds good…but these days, with cost cutting among the media entities that typically sponsor polls, it’s hard to find that large a survey that often.
Politico notes that there is a 51-day pre-debate window in which those polls have to be taken…but the 51 days before that showed only 2 polls of the 70 conducted nationally and in the first four states fit that required sample size…with little reason to think polls this month and next will be much different.
Even a Fox News poll earlier this month…sponsored by the media outlet producing and airing next month’s debate…surveyed only 391 registered voters who said they were more likely to vote in the Republican primary or caucus in their state…half the party’s required sample size.
And Politico reports that Fox is hardly alone…recent surveys commissioned by NBC News had 500, CNN had 561, CBS 586, and USA Today only 245.
In response to a question, Politico says the RNC says its criteria are clear and they are confident there will be enough valid polls.
Well, that’s one way to limit the number of podiums needed for the debate.
