The 2024 Map
Contrary to how some may wish, we elect presidents based on the Electoral College, not a raw popular vote. That means Iowa is worth six votes…marking the number of U.S. Senators, two, and the number of Members of Congress, four.
The latest “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” from the University of Virginia is out…the first on the 2024 race. And it shows polarization…combined with an open race.
The key projections of this report, according to Politico, is that there are only four states that are really toss ups: Arizona, with 11 electoral votes…Georgia with 16…Nevada with 6, and Wisconsin with 10. That’s 43 total.
In the “leans Republican” category, they have North Carolina at 16 votes, and the second congressional district of Maine, with 1 vote. Meanwhile, in the “leans Democrat” category, you find Michigan at 15, Pennsylvania at 19, and New Hampshire at 4.
Here’s the takeaway…If you combine the safe, likely and lean states for each respective party, Crystal Ball projects the Democrats have 260 electoral votes and the Republicans have 235…leading to their statement that, “This campaign is wide open.”
And that’s without placing the name of a candidate into the mix. That’s where my “polarization” comment comes in. While it is wide open, there are plenty of safe states in there—ones that will go red or blue regardless.
So when we ask candidates what their path is to victory in November 2024…that’s the road map they are studying, which helps us understand various moves they may make.
