Splitting the Vote
The 2020 Democrat caucus and primary season wrapped up quickly…Bernie Sanders kept gaining strength, and all the other candidates were splitting the “not Bernie” vote. So as the Super Tuesday primaries approach in March, magically one after another in the “not Bernie” group dropped out and supported Joe Biden…seen as the best chance to beat Sanders one-on-one. And they had to coalesce early before Sanders got out to a lead that was insurmountable.
Of course, that strategy worked…Biden became the nominee and is now president.
The Republicans have a similar issue in 2024…there’s Donald Trump, and what is expected to be a field of competitors that is quite likely to split the “not Trump” vote. If that happens, Trump wins…and some of the “never Trump” wing of the GOP are already warning about that.
None other than Utah U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney, for example. He has already stated he will not support Trump in 2024, even if he is the GOP nominee. Now Romney is warning fellow Republicans that this needs to be winnowed down to a two-person race quickly. “It really is up to the donors and other people that know the candidate, his family or her family, to say, ‘Hey, time to move on,’” Romney told NBC.
So in RomneyWorld, go ahead and enter the race, and be prepared to bail quickly once someone—anyone—catches fire and earns the right to face Trump without interference.
The concept is correct, because math is math…but does Romney really have any credibility left at this point? Is there a constituency of voters who will rally behind him on any issue? Or any candidates with their eye on the nomination?
Again, the math and policy may be correct…but Romney’s flipping on so many issues—including Trump—marginalizes the impact of anything he says. If, in fact, the GOP settles on an anti-Trump candidate early in the process…it will only be a coincidence, and not something Romney should take credit for. He will, but should not.
