Sure, They’re Numbers, But…
Less than two weeks before election day, early voting already underway…and no one has any earthly idea about how things will turn out. Which is actually as it should be; casting a vote is supposed to be a personal and confidential decision, so trusting any numbers other than the ones from election night is folly.
I’m always reminded of the quote attributed to Mark Twain: “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” So true regarding polls, because it matters who was surveyed, who did the surveying, what questions were asked, what possible answers were available, how those answers were grouped…and so on, and so on.
It’s almost comical these days…folks who like the results think the polls are tremendous, those who don’t like the results think they’re garbage. What’s even more disingenuous is for one political party to term one poll great and another garbage…but they were each done at the same time, by the same pollster.
Campaigns talk about their “internal” polling, which may differ from so-called “independent” polls, always showing a much closer race than others would have you believe. And as we’ve discussed here before, polling based on party label instead of candidate name this close to an election is a waste…but still being done, fitting the agenda of someone who can interpret the number a certain way to make their case stronger.
Perhaps the Twain phrase should be restated as “There are polls, damn polls, and elections”—because there are no, repeat no, trends that can be drawn that can be trusted.
The only thing you can trust is yourself—your research, your impressions, your own independent judgment. Don’t let polls, or amount of money, or amount of ads, sway you. Block that out. Listen to yourself. Then cast a free and unbiased vote.
Because again…those are the only numbers that count.
