There Are Candidates
We hear a lot about results from the Des Moines newspaper’s “Iowa Poll”…they released data earlier this week showing numbers in the Iowa contests for Governor and U.S. Senate.
But for reasons that are not clear, their polling within Iowa’s four congressional districts again only asked about which party a voter would choose, not which candidate. They did the same thing in July, after all the primaries were done and the candidates set.
There is a huge difference between the “generic ballot” as it’s called—asking if you’d vote for a generic Republican or a generic Democrat—or the actual candidates in a race. That’s because literally a third of registered voters in most of our districts register as non-affiliated, or independent, voters.
Frankly, the results showing a shift in “generic” label tells me nothing about the outcome on November 8th…because there are candidates with real names on the ballot, beyond generic party affiliation.
Reporting by one of the TV stations in this market…not the one that does our radio newscasts, for what it’s worth…made the whole thing even more confusing, but misreading the Iowa Poll and attaching candidates to the generic poll results. Factually wrong, and a real disservice to voters, I hate to say…they should have known better.
In short, there has been no independent polling of the congressional races using candidate names…so we have no idea who really may win. And that’s made even more true by the latest voter registration numbers.
In northeast Iowa’s second district, active Democrat registered voters outnumber Republicans by less than 500, of some 320-thousand. But with another 155-thousand independents in the mix, it’s not at all clear which candidate, if either, has an edge.
Same for southeast Iowa’s first district…Democrats have a stronger, 2,500 voter margin over Republicans…but again, 150-thousand independents are in the mix.
So whatever you thought you heard about eastern Iowa congressional races this week…ignore the chatter, and instead focus on learning about the candidates and where they stand on issues…and then casting an informed ballot. This one is going to be far too close for anyone who cares to stay home.
