The Numbers Game
We’ve talked before about the partisan breakout of Iowa’s four new congressional districts…but the new voter registration numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State show some nuances.
At first blush, Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in three of the four districts…but there’s much more to it than that.
There’s an overwhelming Republican advantage in the spacious fourth district of north central and western Iowa. There are 225-thousand registered Republicans, 176-thousand “no party” voters, and only 138-thousand Democrats. The new third district in southern and central Iowa has 189-thousand Democrats, 172-thousand Republicans, and 171-thousand no party voters. It’s by far the closest in terms of breakdown between the categories.
But both of the eastern Iowa districts…the new first district in southeast and central Iowa, and the new second district in the northeast quarter of the state…have wide independent streaks running through them.
In the new first district, including Newton, Iowa City, Davenport, and Burlington, registered Democrats number 195-thousand, compared with only 172-thousand Republicans. But the number of “no party” voters dwarfs both D’s and R’s, with 202-thousand registered without partisan preference.
Same for the new second district, including Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, Mason City, and Dubuque…186-thousand Democrats, 169-thousand Republicans, and a huge 198-thousand “no party” voters.
Those are both the true definition of “swing districts”…sure, Democrats have sizeable advantages over Republicans, but with independents outnumbering each of the parties, those districts are well in play. Both are represented currently by Republicans. The large number of independents, plus the incumbency factor, mean Republicans will still have to work, but Democrats cannot simply stand by a voter registration advantage versus Republicans and expect to flip two red seats blue in November.
