It’s Not A Trend
Let’s all take a deep breath…and now another one…and stop the overreaction to Tuesday’s election results.
They mean nothing–absolutely nothing–regarding 2022. It’s not a trend, it’s not the start of something bigger. It’s a reflection of those races, in those states.
Much has been made of the Republican winning the governor’s race in Virginia. But remember that Democrats were mad that Terry McAuliffe entered the race earlier in the year, because it blocked four younger rising stars–including two African-American females–from having their turn. Instead, it seemed like a guy who simply wanted back in power, and often on the campaign trail, he came across that way. He was ahead until he made terrible comments about the role of parents in school, and it only got worse when he resorted to the “anti-Trump” rhetoric we discussed yesterday. He lost the race all on his own, and had any other Democrat been running in place of him, that person would be governor elect today.
Yes, one of the chambers in the Virginia legislature flipped, but again, that’s a function of individual districts and not some national message. McAuliffe’s presence tamped down Democrat vote and it hurt them down ticket.
The dead-even race in New Jersey that ultimately was called for the Democrat also is not part of a national trend. The incumbent had been roasted for how he treated businesses that dared to open during COVID, and his inconsistent messaging and authoritarian style did not wear well on folks. Plus no Democrat had won re-election in New Jersey in more than 40 years, so you could say Phil Murphy winning was a surprise. See, it’s easy to spin if you have a narrative you want to advance.
So to any Democrats who think it’s time to change strategy; fine, go ahead, but not based on Tuesday. And to any Republicans who think the vote is a repudiation of Biden policies, not so fast. They are two interesting races on the same day, with results due to local factors–it’s not a national trend. See me after all 435 U.S. House members are on the ballot, like at this time next year–then we can talk national trends.
