The Role of Independents
The Iowa Secretary of State released the office’s monthly report on voter registration yesterday…and in the wake of some surprising November general election results, a few surprises in the registration numbers.
No surprise in the fourth congressional district, where Republicans hold a stout voter registration advantage…212 thousand, compared with 161 thousand independent or no party voters, and Democrats a poor third with 131 thousand. And no huge surprise in the third district, where Democrats hold a slim 10 thousand voter lead over Republicans—the population of metro Des Moines countering rural areas.
But check out both districts in Eastern Iowa…both have more Democrats than anything else…with Republicans actually the third largest group, behind no party voters in both the first and second districts. Further, Democrats only lead no party by 6 thousand votes in the first district, and 11 thousand in the second.
Yet both districts flipped from blue to red last November. Obviously, those independents went along with the Iowa red wave in 2020. But the numbers are quite important for upcoming elections…lest Republicans crow too loudly about winning those congressional seats, it appears they needed a bunch of we independents in order to get the job done. That means the group is just as likely to leave in the next election; that’s sort of the definition of “no party” voters.
And it’s a group that is growing, in part because of…and in part leading to…the greater polarization of positions held by those in the two major parties.
