It’s a Long Way to November
I spent some time yesterday joining a friend on his radio program…it airs on a progressive station in the Twin Cities, and we often talk on the air about the national political scene.
He talked a while about the atrocities of the current president and how he was headed for a crushing defeat in November. Then he asked for my thoughts.
I reminded him that national polls are worthless since we elect presidents via the electoral college. He then rattled off some favorite state polls showing President Trump behind in certain key states.
I then told him that if the election were held today, I firmly believed that President Trump would be re-elected.
That’s when it got silent on the other end.
The fact is that nothing can be predicted until after Labor Day. That’s only two months away. Think of how much has changed since spring of this year alone, and history shows us that candidates who are measuring the Oval Office for curtains in the summer are sitting writing their memoirs and explaining “what happened” by Thanksgiving. One example…2008, when the economy tumbled and John McCain’s lead evaporated, all within 10 weeks of the election.
It’s going to depend on the economy, who Biden selects as a running mate and heir apparent, and turnout of those who don’t claim party affiliation. And it’s far too soon to determine any of that.
I think the silence was, in part, because those who hate the current president can’t truly conceive of him in office another four years. They should, because history shows you should never bet against an incumbent president.
