Registration and Responses
The Iowa Secretary of State’s office releases new voter registration data on the first of each month, and the July data was truly interesting.
Despite having a contested presidential precinct caucus in February, despite having a five-way U.S. Senate primary in June, Iowa Democrats have lost their voter registration lead in Iowa.
Granted, it’s by a whisker, but it’s still notable.
There are 2,003,793 registered voters in Iowa, more than 80 percent of the adult population. Of that number, more registered voters identify as Republican than Democrat, or “no party”.
There are 681,789 Republicans, and 681,148 Democrats…a GOP advantage of 641 voters…out of more than 2 million. Those of us who are “no party” registration holders are at 627,444.
The state GOP made a lot out of that voter registration advantage given all the action on the other side. But it’s not how many you register alone…it’s how many you can turn out for an election. The huge number of “no party” voters also makes election predictions based on registration sort of foolish.
And it also matters where they are at. Democrats hold significant voter registration advantages in each of Iowa’s congressional districts except the 4th…between 15 and 30 thousand more Democrats are registered in each of the other three, very important as congressional races loom this fall. Actually “no party” outpaces the GOP in both Iowa’s 1st and 2nd districts.
Step one is registration…but as noted, step two is turnout…and that’s the scoreboard that really counts.
